Dissertation

DISSERTATION 

How can we explain the increasing number of Afro-, Asian, and Maghrebi European ministers, MPs, and more recently party leaders—the “public face”—of the party in countries where far-right parties rose to become the first, second, or third largest parliamentary party and anti-immigration and anti-multicultural attitudes are high? According to an increasingly influential theory about ethnic representation, parties are vote-seeking and make a strategic choice about which voters to appeal to during elections. If parties appeal to ethnic minorities who are often viewed as immigrants by the broader society, they risk losing anti-immigration and anti-multicultural voters and vice versa.  Thus, parties will adopt restrictive immigration and multicultural policies if they seek anti-immigration voters or nominate large numbers of ethnic candidates if they seek to appeal to ethnic minorities. According to theory, vote-seeking parties should only appeal to ethnic minorities when they significantly outnumber anti-immigration voters not when far-right parties finish first, second, or third in parliamentary elections. Parties in theory make an either-or choice—ethnic minority or anti-immigration voters. Contrary to expectations, even where far-right parties finish first, second, or third, the same parties simultaneously adopt restrictive immigration policies and significantly increase ethnic representation.

When do parties act in such counter-theoretical ways? I will argue that three types of party crises alter the perception of what is risky and what is not. Historic electoral losses, internal party scandals, and large national and local ethnic protests such as BLM and anti-Zwarte Piet movement have the potential to shift parties’ perceptions of the risks and benefits of ethnic candidates. When these critical events occur in the presence of sizable far-right parties, parties are pushed to adopt contradictory policies—restricting immigration while electing and appointing Black, South Asian, and Maghrebi politics to highly visible positions. Contrary to theory, these three crises and growing anti-immigration success push parties to appeal to both.

I combine quantitative analysis of eighteen countries (Western Europe, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia) with the matched case study of Belgium and the Netherlands. I use multilevel regression analysis and quantitative text analysis to determine when parties are more like to increase, decrease, or leave unchanged the nomination, appointment, and election of parliamentary candidates.

DISSERTATION COMMITTEE

Stephen Bloom (chair), Southern Illinois University Carbondale

Katherine Tate, Brown University

Benjamin Bricker, Southern Illinois University Carbondale

Stephen Shulman, Southern Illinois University Carbondale

Scott McClurg, Southern Illinois University Carbondale